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    Using Reliability Growth Models to Detect Emerging Warranty Problems .pdf

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    UsingReliabilityGrowthModelstoDetectEmergingWarrantyProblems.pdf

    Thispaperexplorestheuseofreliabilityanalysistechniquestoanalyzewarrantydata.
    Claimforecastingandearlywarningtechniquesarenotnew,buttheapplicationofreliabilitygrowthmodelingtoprovideenhancedpredictivecapabilityisarelativelyunexploredarea.Inparticular,attentionwillberestrictedtotheproblemofmakingforecastsfromlimiteddataearlyinaproduct’slifecycle.

    Fittingastatisticalmodeltoacompletesetofdataisrelativelyeasycomparedtoforecastingfromaverysmallsampleearlyinaproductlifecycle.Likewise,correctlydetectingaqualityorreliabilityproblemfromwarrantyclaimsduringthe4th,5thor6thmonthofproductionismuchmoredifficultthanbythe10thor11thmonth.Yet,earlyoninthelifecycleisthemostcrucialtimeperiodtodetectaproblemsoastocorrectitandremovethepotentialproblemfromeverreachingthecustomer,therebylimitingthefinancialimpactviapotentialwarrantyclaims.

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