蒙特卡罗法如何应用于可靠性预计、设计

传个Example给lz参考 这个是Crystalball这个软件中案例 [quote][b]ReliabilityofaHelicalSpring[/b] Author CrystalBall Summary Inthisexample,adesignengineerhasthetaskofchoosingthebestofthreematerialstouseforahelicalspring.TheengineermustuseCrystalBall®toaccountfortheknownvariationsinthestressparametersandsteelstrengths.Thismodelishelpfulforunderstandingthesensitivityanalysisfeature,theTornadoCharttool,theoverlaychart,andtheeffectsofdifferenttypesofdistributions. Keywords:assumption,forecast,sensitivitychart,TornadoCharttool,engineering,reliability Discussion Thebestmaterialistheonethatwillgivethespringthehighestlikelihoodofwithstandingitspeakrequirements.Thelikelihoodofsuccess,knownasthespring’sreliability,canbeexpressedastheprobabilitythatthespring’sstrength(S)willexceedthestress(s)subjectedtoit: Reliability=p(S>s)[/quote]

谢谢了；不过看了下，好像用的是专用软件导出的数据，而且是用于机械测试的；有没有用于系统级预计或设计的，或板级预计或设计的？最好有详细的计算过程，再次感谢！

我们用montecarlo主要在Statisticaltolerance或者SensitivityAnalysis方面. 我认为它本身就是个statistical的工具,如果能了解它的理念:建立模型-->找出transferfunciton-->noisefunction的分布-->Stimulation-->Results-->Sensitivity-->Optimization 用于系统级的分析应该也不困难. 附件的paperFYI [attach]7281[/attach]

谢谢fuckit兄，师傅领进门、修行在个人；谢谢指点！